Voting for the assembly elections in Tamil Nadu will take place on April 23, 2026. This time, actor-turned-politician Vijay’s party Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) has also entered the electoral fray to take on the ruling DMK and opposition AIADMK in the state assembly elections. However, in two pre-poll surveys released before the assembly elections, the ruling DMK alliance is likely to win.
What was revealed in the survey?
According to the survey conducted by Lok Poll from March 1, 2026 to April 1, 2026, Chief Minister M.K. Stalin-led alliance DMK is likely to win around 181 to 189 seats out of the total 234 seats in the state and is expected to get 40.1% vote share. Whereas the opposition AIADMK led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to win 38 to 42 seats in the state. Its estimated vote share is 29%.
At the same time, actor-turned-politician Vijay’s party Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), which is contesting elections for the first time in the state, is also expected to get 8 to 10 seats and about 23.9% vote share. At the same time, the influence of NTK and other parties is likely to be limited, whose estimated vote share is 4.9% and 2.1% respectively.
Which party has more dominance among the public?
According to the survey, the most preferred face for the post of Chief Minister in Tamil Nadu is DMK chief MK Stalin, followed by TVK Chief Vijay and AIADMK’s Edappadi K. Palaniswami’s face.
The survey said that the main reason for the DMK alliance’s lead is its strong public welfare schemes, which include Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogoi, free bus travel and breakfast scheme. These schemes have had a special impact on women in rural and semi-urban areas. Also, the biggest advantage for DMK is that the opposition votes are being divided between NDA and TVK. At the same time, Vijay’s party TVK is getting good support especially from the youth, first time voters and people dissatisfied with the government. However, due to contesting the elections alone, this support will not translate into much seats.
Whereas according to the survey, Edappadi K. AIADMK led by Palaniswami is facing internal troubles. Divisions in the party, lack of key leaders and weak organizational condition, especially in Delta and southern districts, are affecting its performance.
What is the condition of which party in the poll tracker data?
According to the Poll Tracker survey, the DMK alliance is expected to come to power again, in which it can get 172 to 178 seats and about 42.7% vote share. At the same time, AIADMK is expected to get 46 to 52 seats, which is far behind. Whereas TVK can get 6 to 12 seats with around 19.2% vote share. Moreover, NTK is projected to get 0 to 2 seats and around 5.1% vote share.
The survey said that due to the alliance of AIADMK and BJP, minority votes have inclined towards the DMK alliance. Apart from this, many communities including Mudaliar, Naidu and Muslim community are widely seen in favor of the DMK alliance.
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