Candidates have been announced for all 243 seats in Bihar Assembly elections. Both NDA and Grand Alliance have taken special care of the caste equation of their respective candidates while distributing tickets. To cater to its base vote bank, RJD chose more candidates from the Muslim-Yadav section, while JDU tried to solve the backward and extremely backward equation. BJP has also played the role of social equation in the selection of candidates.
So let us understand in ABP Explainer what is the caste-wise breakdown of Bihar’s population, how will it affect the election strategy and how much will the parties benefit from it…
Question 1- What is the basic meaning of caste and social equation and why are its roots deep in Bihar?
answer- Caste equation simply means that parties create vote banks by looking at the caste breakdown of the population. Which species is how big, where it lives and how to attract it. The social equation adds religion, economic status and regional factors to it.
This is a big thing in Bihar because there are 214 castes here and no single caste is in majority. The total population of Bihar is 13.7 crore, in which EBC – 4.70 crore (36.01%) is the largest group. Then there are OBC- 3.54 crore(27.13%), SC- 2.57 crore(19.65%), upper caste- 2.03 crore(15.52%), Muslim- 2.31 crore(17.7%) and ST- 22 lakh(1.68%).
- The caste and social equation in Bihar started with the Mandal Commission of 1990 (OBC reservation 27%), when Lalu Prasad Yadav created the MY (Muslim-Yadav, 31% population) formula, which broke the dominance of the upper castes.
- Since 2005, Nitish Kumar balanced caste with ‘development’ by adding Luv-Kush (Kurmi-Kushwaha, 7-8%) + EBC + Mahadalit (part of SC).
- The 2023 survey showed EBC at 36%, which is forcing parties to not just stick to the core vote but make a dent.
- Understand with example- Yadav (14.27%, 1.87 crore) is the core vote bank of RJD. Kushwahas (4.21%, 0.55 crore) are the core voters of NDA and Brahmins (3.66%, 0.48 crore) are the core voters of BJP. Without achieving these, it is impossible to get majority i.e. 122 seats.
Question 2- What is the caste-wise detailed breakdown of the population of Bihar and how does it affect the election strategy?
answer- According to the caste census of 2023, there are 214 castes in the total population of Bihar of 13.07 crores. In these-
- EBC (Extremely Backward Class): This caste category of 4.70 crore people covers 36.01% of the population. These include Dhanuk (2.41%), Nishad (1.96%), Teli (2.81%), Kevat (1.21%) and Bind (1.25%). These are mostly rural people, whose income is less than Rs 6,000 per month. Nitish Kumar gave them 18% reservation, due to which JDU benefited in the 2005-2010 elections.
- OBC (Backward Class): This class of 3.54 crore people covers 27.13% of the population. These include people from castes like Yadav (14.27%), Kushwaha/Koeri (4.21%) and Kurmi (2.87%). This is part of MY, but NDA has cut 32% OBC votes by breaking Kushwaha.
- SC (Dalit Class): This class of 2.57 crore people has 19.65% share in the total population. These include caste groups like Paswan (5.31%), Ravidas (1.59%), Mushahar (3.08%) and Manjhi (1.19%). In this, Mahadalits (21 sub-castes) are the vote bank of Nitish, but Chirag Paswan has attracted the Paswan caste towards BJP.
- Upper caste: 2.03 crore people constitute 15.52% of the total population. These include castes like Brahmin (3.66%), Rajput (3.45%), Bhumihar (2.86%) and Kayastha (0.60%). This is the core vote bank of BJP, which is urban dominant. But due to less numbers, alliance becomes necessary.
- Muslim: The state has a population of 2.31 crore, which covers 17.7%. These include ethnic people like Sheikh and Pathan. With this RJD gets 76% votes.
- ST: The population covering 1.68% of the state is around 22 lakh, which includes castes like Santhal and Oraon. 2 seats are reserved for them.
This breakdown affects the elections in Bihar because parties distribute tickets on this basis. For example, JDU gave 32% tickets in 2025 to the 36% population of EBC so that rural votes can be ensured. The survey showed OBC+EBC at 63%, increasing the demand for ‘social justice’.
Question 3- How did the Grand Alliance distribute the tickets and what would be the benefits and disadvantages of it?
answer- The grand alliance includes RJD, Congress, VIP and Left (parties like CPI-ML). Their aim is to bring 63% backward (OBC+EBC), 19.65% Dalit and 17.7% Muslim population of Bihar into their fold…
RJD (143 seats)
- RJD has fielded candidates on 143 seats out of 243. Their biggest weapon is MY Formula. These two groups together constitute 31% of the population, which is a huge vote bank in Bihar. RJD gave tickets to 51 Yadav and 19 Muslim candidates. That means half of their tickets went to these two groups. This means that RJD can get huge votes in areas like Magadh and Seemanchal, where these groups are strong. Despite Tejashwi Yadav’s claim of A to Z, RJD has taken maximum care of the MY equation.
- Apart from this, RJD also gave tickets to 11 Kushwaha candidates, who are usually with NDA. This is NDA’s ploy to break the OBC vote. 14 tickets went to the upper castes i.e. Brahmins and Rajputs and the rest to EBC (Dhanuk, Nishad) and Dalits (Paswan, Ravidas). RJD also gave 10-15% tickets to women, so that 50% women voters could be wooed.
Congress (61 seats)
- Congress’s focus is on 36% of the EBC population, which includes Dhanuks, Telis and Ravidas among Dalits. Dalit voters have been wooed by making Rajesh Kumar of Ravidas caste the chief of Bihar Congress. Kanhaiya Kumar’s Padyatra in August 2025 targeted young and migrant voters. Congress also gave some tickets to the upper castes so that they could retain their hold in the urban areas.
VIP and left
- Mukesh Sahni’s VIP has given Nishad candidates on 4-5 seats, who are strong in Kosi-Son region. Left (CPI-ML etc.) gave tickets to EBC (Dhanuk, Teli) on 18 seats. These small parties take the Grand Alliance to the rural EBC and Dalit votes.
Strategy of Grand Alliance: The Grand Alliance gave 70% of its tickets to OBC, EBC, SC and Muslims so that more than 80% of the population of Bihar was covered. By keeping MY strong, an attempt has been made to ensure 23% vote share like in 2020. Kushwaha ticket is a plan to snatch the votes of NDA and to woo young voters by making Tejashwi the CM face.
Benefit: According to experts, according to MY equation, 76% Muslim and 80% Yadav votes are confirmed, which can give 75-85 seats. If Kushwaha ticket reduces NDA’s 5-10% OBC votes, then it can get 10-15 additional seats in areas like Magadha. Tejashwi’s youth appeal may benefit from 10% floating votes.
Loss: With fewer tickets on 36% of the EBC population, NDA’s hold may remain strong, as happened in 2020 when the Grand Alliance’s OBC consolidation failed. Votes can be divided due to mutual friendly fight between RJD and Congress on 6 seats. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj is contesting on all 243 seats and is seeking votes irrespective of caste. Due to this, 20% floating voters can be snatched away.
Question 4- How did NDA distribute tickets and what will be the benefit and loss from it?
answer- NDA includes JDU, BJP, LJP (Chirag Paswan), HAM (Jitan Ram Manjhi) and RLM (Upendra Kushwaha). They have fielded candidates on all 243 seats and their aim is to keep the upper castes (15.52%) strong while supporting the EBC (36%), OBC (27%) and Dalits (19.65%)…
JDU (101 seats)
- Nitish Kumar’s JDU fielded candidates on 101 seats. Their focus is OBC and EBC, which constitute 63% of the population. 37 tickets went to OBC, including 13 to Kushwaha, 12 to Kurmi, 22 to EBC (including 8 Dhanuk) and 8 to Yadav to dent RJD’s MY. 22 upper castes (9 Bhumihar, 10 Rajput, 1 Brahmin, 1 Kayastha), 4 Muslims and 10 Dalits (5 Musahars, 5 Ravidas) got tickets.
- Tickets were also given to 13 women so that they could woo women voters. Nitish wants to strengthen EBC with the image of 18% reservation and development and wants to garner rural votes from Kushwaha-Kurmi.
BJP (101 seats)
- BJP’s core voters are upper caste (15.52%), hence 49 tickets were given to upper castes. These include 21 Rajputs, 16 Bhumihars, 11 Brahmins and 1 Kayastha. That is, half the tickets go to the upper castes, who constitute only 15% of the population, because 90% of them vote for BJP. 24 OBC tickets (6 Yadav, 5 Kushwaha, 2 Kurmi, 4 Bania), 16 went to EBC (5 Teli, 1 Nishad, 1 Dhanuk), 11 SC (7 Paswan, 3 Ravidas, 1 Mushahar) and 1 ST. The ground work of RSS united the upper castes.
LJP, HAM, RLM
- LJP (Chirag Paswan) gave Paswan (5.31%) candidates on 29 seats, which is a major part of Dalit votes. HAM (Jitan Ram Manjhi) gave tickets to Mushahar and Manjhi on 7-8 seats. RLM (Upendra Kushwaha) selected Kushwaha on 3-4 seats. These small parties provide Dalit and OBC votes to NDA.
NDA’s strategy: According to experts, NDA gave 60% tickets to OBC-EBC-SC so that 63% backward and 19.65% Dalit population was covered. BJP’s upper caste base and JDU’s EBC focus can provide 32% EBC and 40% SC votes like in 2020. The stability of the alliance was shown by making Nitish the CM face. An attempt has been made to break RJD’s MY with Yadav ticket.
Benefit: According to experts, 32% votes from EBC, 90% from upper caste and 40% from Dalit can give 136 seats to NDA. Nitish’s EBC image and Chirag’s Paswan influence will ensure rural seats.
Loss: According to experts, giving half the tickets to upper castes increases the risk of resentment among OBC-EBC and OBCs are raising questions. Nitish’s age (74) and health may shift EBC votes. Jan Suraj may snatch 20-30 seats, especially if the issues of youth (58%) and unemployment (34% families earning less than ₹6,000/month) dominate.
Question 5- Will ticket distribution affect the election results?
answer- According to political experts, distribution of tickets on the basis of caste and social equation will affect the election results to a great extent. This division is a game of vote consolidation and burglary. If trends are to be believed, NDA seems to have more advantage because their ticket distribution strengthens EBC (36%) and upper caste (15.52%), whereas the MY (Muslim-Yadav, 31%) focus of the Grand Alliance is limited.
Experts say that tickets shift votes caste-wise. If NDA holds EBC (60% votes in 2020), majority (122 seats) can be confirmed. At the same time, if the Grand Alliance cuts the OBC votes of NDA from Kushwaha (4.21%), then 10-15 seats will be plus. But Jan Suraj’s caste-neutral approach may cut off 20% floating votes, which will harm both.