The current conflict in Iran is no longer just a military confrontation, it has become such a complex game of power, ideological control and global balance of power, whose every move has a clearly visible impact on international politics, diplomacy and economy. The pace of events has been so fast in recent months that traditional analysis seems to be left behind.
Amidst this turmoil, a turning point occurred which made the entire crisis more complicated. US President Donald Trump’s claim that talks to end the war with Iran are “now happening”. Immediately after his statement, there was a stir in the global oil market and a decline of about 6% was recorded in the prices, but the question is, is this the beginning of diplomatic success or just a part of political rhetoric?
Trump’s claim and Iran’s strong reaction
Trump said in his statement that his team is talking to the right people in Iran and they want to make a deal very badly. He also clarified that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are involved in this process. However, Trump, who is eager to make deals, has claimed to have made many deals in the past also. However, shortly after this claim, Iran on Monday (23 March) rejected all these speculations and said that no talks have taken place with America. This statement came after Trump had shrugged off the threat of bombing Iran’s power grid, saying that he had “indications of progressive talks with unidentified Iranian officials. This contradiction has become the biggest puzzle of this entire crisis. Is there really any dialogue going on behind the scenes or is this a strategy to create global pressure?”
Diplomacy versus pressure: Trump’s strategy
On behalf of America, Donald Trump has taken a tough stance regarding Iran, but has also indicated that the path of dialogue is open. His style has always been unpredictable and this unpredictability makes this whole equation more complicated. The reaction seen in the global markets after his statement is an indication that both investors and governments are hoping for a possible diplomatic solution.
secret behind the scenes conversation
The biggest question is who is or can talk to Trump on behalf of Iran. There is no such formal confirmation, but international diplomacy often does not proceed through formal channels. Signals, statements and actions have to be read. It is also possible that indirect communication is going on through countries like Oman or Qatar. There is also talk of mediation on this issue from Pakistan side. If so, then this would be a complex example of multi-level talks, where political leadership, military power and international mediators are trying to find a solution together.
Khamenei’s assassination and mysterious restructuring of power
The biggest blow to this geopolitical crisis came when the news of the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei came to light. This incident was not just a political assassination, but an attack on the center of the power structure that had guided Iran’s policy and strategy for decades. The speed with which the change of power took place after this incident surprised the analytical scientists around the world. The regime and the current scenario in Iran are full of instability and uncertainty. The center of power is not clear and this situation makes it more dangerous. Whoever was in the top leadership has either been killed and is now out of sight.
Mujtaba Khamenei, natural heir
Now the command of Iran is said to be in the hands of Mujtaba Khamenei, who is the son of former supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Despite his formal appointment, the question remains whether he has the real power or not. Questions are also being raised because their presence has not been there ever since this conflict started, and also many voices have started being raised inside Iran. Born in Mashhad, Mujtaba Khamenei saw the center of power closely since childhood. He joined the IRGC after the 1979 revolution, and the final years of the Iran-Iraq war strengthened his ties to the security establishment. Despite religious studies in Qom, he did not gain traditional religious status, but he increased his influence through marriage and political networking. His role in the 2009 Green Movement crackdown established him as a harsh, influential powerhouse.
Mujtaba Khamenei identified as shadow leader
Mujtaba Khamenei has long been seen as a shadow leader. His position is considered limited in terms of religious legitimacy, but his hold in the corridors of power is said to be deep. During his father’s tenure, his indirect role in many important decisions has been discussed. Now that he is formally at the helm, it will be interesting to see whether he is actually in a position to take decisions or will remain just a symbolic face. An Al Arabiya report, citing Israeli media, claims that Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has agreed to negotiate with the US and reach an agreement. This move indicates a possible path to a diplomatic solution amid the current hostilities. However, according to American reports, Ayatollah Mujtaba Khamenei has been away from the public eye since assuming office and there are reports that he was badly injured. CIA is also looking for clues about the new leader of Iran.
Massoud Pezeshkian, reformist face, limited role
Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian is seen as a leader with a relatively moderate and reformist image. He is definitely the face of Iran on international forums, but in the current war-like situation, his role seems limited. His position is like that of a leader who represents diplomatic dialogue, but is unable to play a decisive role in military and strategic decisions. This is why there is uncertainty about his role even on the question of possible talks with Trump.
Qalibaf and the military-political axis of power
The profile of Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bakar Qalibaf is completely different. Being a former military officer, he is considered to have deep connections with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He is seen as a tough but practical administrator. Qalibaf, a former police chief and associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, has long been close to Iran’s power and is considered a strong pillar. In 2005, he made his presence felt in national politics by contesting the presidential race. After this, as the Mayor of Tehran and then the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, he further strengthened his hold in Iranian politics. Their influence is not limited to the boundaries of Parliament only. They are also active in areas where military strategy and political decisions intersect. This is why his name is being taken as a possible mediator in possible back-channel talks.
Gholam-Hussein Mohseni-Ajei, Internal Control and the Role of the Judiciary
The role of Iran’s judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ajei is also very important in this crisis. His strategy has been decisive in controlling internal opposition and dissent. In times of war, maintaining stability within the country is as important as it is difficult. This responsibility rests on his shoulders and his policies can decide how strong or weak Iran will prove to be from within.
During the anti-hijab protests, Golemhosein Mohseni AJ had issued a new decree for women and girls. “To remain open-minded is tantamount to enmity with (our) values,” he said. He said that no concessions will be made in taking legal action against women who do not wear hijab. His attitude towards women has been quite conservative and in accordance with the government of Iran.
Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Foreign Minister of Iran
As Iran’s top diplomat, Araghchi has emerged as the most prominent face of the government at present. He has long been known in Western diplomatic circles as a tough negotiator with a tough stance on the nuclear programme. At present only Araghchi is speaking on behalf of Iran across the world. Be it India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar on opening the Strait of Hormuz or talks with China or consultations with Russia.
Statement of Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
Amid US-Iran tension, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has given a big and shocking statement and said that talks with Washington are now over forever. In a video message released after the recent American-Israeli attacks, he called it a betrayal of trust. Even if we believe this, the door to talks seems to be closed for Trump here. In recent interviews and social media statements, he described Iran as a “victim” of the attacks and warned that Tehran would respond “without hesitation” if attacks on energy infrastructure continue. Analysts believe that their increasing role in the current war can also make them stronger in future power politics. At present his challenge is to strike a balance between military pressure, domestic expectations and international diplomacy. A “tightrope walk” in which Iran’s strategic interests are at stake.
Is IRGC the real power center of Iran?
Among all these political faces, there is one organization whose role is considered to be the most influential. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It is not just a military force, but a vast network of economic, political and intelligence networks. In the current conflict, the real decisions are being taken somewhere within this organization. This is the point where Iran’s power structure becomes blurred. Does real power rest with Mojtaba Khamenei, or in the hands of IRGC generals? Can a leader like Ghalibaf influence this balance of power? The answers to these questions are not direct, but the indications are clear. Iran is moving from a centralized power to a polycentric power structure.
Global impact: from oil to balance of power
This crisis of Iran will not be limited only to the Middle East. This will affect the global oil market, international security and diplomatic relations. The recent fall in oil prices certainly shows that the market reacts quickly to any positive signal, but the ground reality is that the struggle is not over yet. If a diplomatic solution is not found, this crisis may also affect the global balance of power, especially between countries like America, China and Russia.
uncertain future, turning point
The current scenario of Iran is full of instability and uncertainty. The center of power is not clear and this situation makes it more dangerous. In the coming time, it will decide whether Iran will move forward on the path of confrontation or turn towards diplomacy. It is certain that this struggle will not be limited to the borders only. It can also decide the direction of global politics. At present, the eyes of the world are fixed on Tehran and Washington. The answer to whether the talks “happening now” will actually pave the way for an end to the war, or prove to be just another political ploy, will emerge in the days to come.
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