After the announcement of Bihar Assembly Elections 2025, all the political parties are announcing the names of the candidates. Meanwhile, a question is running in everyone’s mind that which leader will give lead to his party or alliance and will take oath as the Chief Minister after November 14. On this, a senior journalist of Bihar has made a prediction about the next Chief Minister.
Journalist Ajit Dwivedi said while talking to News Tak, one thing is clearly visible in the politics of Bihar these days, NDA (BJP-JDU alliance) is getting the inclination of the public. The main reason for this is the stability in the social schemes and governance of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Despite the government being in power for a long time, not anti-incumbency, but pro-incumbency (a wave in favor of the government) is being seen in Bihar. However, apart from this, Prashant Kishor is talking about employment, while RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has announced to give a government job. Amidst all this, it will be interesting to see which party will form the government.
Pairing of Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi
According to the journalist, the pairing of Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has created a political trust in Bihar. People believe that the government which is continuously providing relief to the people through schemes and welfare measures, there is no need to change it. This is the reason why the opposition India Bloc appears weak on many fronts. A major basis of Nitish Kumar’s popularity in Bihar is his development schemes and special programs for women. This is the reason why NDA enjoys a permanent trust among the people.
Nitish-Modi equation in the era of pro-incumbency
In the last few years, a new trend is being seen in Indian politics; there is less anger against the governments and more support in their favor. This is called pro-incumbency. This situation is even stronger in Bihar because here Nitish Kumar has been in power for a long time, yet there does not seem to be any major dissatisfaction among the public towards him. The main reason for this is that he has connected the government with the people through schemes. Transferring money directly into the accounts of women, farmers, youth and the poor, this strategy is having a direct impact on the society of Bihar. This situation is like states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra, where the schemes of Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Bhupesh Baghel and Eknath Shinde changed the electoral equation. Same thing seems to be happening in Bihar also.
Nitish Kumar’s trust on women is the biggest vote bank
Women’s vote bank has become the most influential in the politics of Bihar today. When Nitish Kumar implemented 50% women’s reservation in local body elections in 2005, he created a new social force. After this, the cycle scheme, dress scheme and education promotion scheme for girls took the government’s message to rural women. Today the same women stand in the form of livelihood groups, entrepreneurship schemes and self-help groups. Recently, the government has transferred an amount of Rs 10,000 to the accounts of these women under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Entrepreneurship Scheme. This is not just a one-time scheme, but a continuous programme.
women’s voting rate
The voting rate of women in Bihar is 5-6% more than that of men. This is the factor that has strengthened Nitish Kumar election after election. Due to migration of men to rural areas, the voting ratio of women has increased further, due to which women’s vote has become decisive.
Impact of schemes, new form of welfare politics
Another reason for NDA’s rise in Bihar is the schemes giving direct benefits. Nitish government not only provided financial assistance to women, but also strengthened social security schemes. Old age, widow and disabled pension was increased from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100. At the same time, the announcement of providing free electricity up to 125 units has also given relief to the public. The arrival of money in bank accounts just before Diwali has created a positive atmosphere among the people towards the government. This is the same strategy that made Ladli Behna Yojana in Madhya Pradesh, Maha Ladli Yojana in Maharashtra and Matru Bandhan Yojana in Chhattisgarh a game-changer.
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